How estimates work
- Find similar plates: same emirate, same number of digits, and digits that repeat in the same way. For example, 2250 is compared with 3360, 9910 and other plates like them.
- Start from the lower end of their prices, because sellers usually ask more than plates sell for.
- Adjust for the few codes and digit features that clearly change prices.
- Correct the result with known values: a small set of plates with a known price or value (3 real sales or agreed prices, 11 values from market knowledge). These are the reference values mentioned under every estimate.
- Give a usual range around the estimate. It is wider when there are fewer similar plates. When there are too few, we say so instead.
Estimates cover Abu Dhabi and Dubai today. Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah: coming soon. We need enough listings from each of them first — a plate is never valued from another emirate’s prices.
What the price labels mean
Each label compares the seller’s price with our estimate and its usual range.
- Great price
- Cheaper than 9 in 10 prices we’d expect for this plate
- Good price
- Under the usual range
- Fair price
- Inside the usual range
- High price
- Over the usual range
- Very high price
- More expensive than 9 in 10 prices we’d expect
- Unusually cheap — check first
- Far under every similar plate. Often a typo, or the listing is no longer there
- No estimate yet
- Too few similar plates to judge
Labels come only from the estimate. Paying for Boost or Featured never changes them.
How accurate is it?
We tested 429 listings, estimating each one as if it wasn’t listed. Most known values come from market knowledge, not recorded sales, so we can mostly check the estimate against asking prices, not sale prices. Use it to compare plates. Price labels come only from the estimate, and nobody can pay to change them.
Known values (14)
Each plate here was estimated as if we didn’t know its value.
| Plate | Known value | Our estimate | In usual range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abu Dhabi 17 77000sold Aug 2023 (alshamil) | 165,000 | 278,000211,000 – 368,000 | No, but close |
| Abu Dhabi 6 55000negotiated Sep 2026 | 210,000 | 273,000207,000 – 361,000 | Yes |
| Abu Dhabi 5 5355sold 2023 (alshamil) | 155,000 | 100,00077,000 – 129,000 | No, but close |
| Dubai V 23432market knowledge | 25,000 | 23,00021,000 – 26,000 | Yes |
| Dubai P 60706market knowledge | 25,000 | 23,00021,000 – 26,000 | Yes |
| Dubai U 17971market knowledge | 26,000 | 28,00025,000 – 32,000 | Yes |
| Dubai 505market knowledge | 1,200,000 | 1,000,000734,000 – 1,370,000 | Yes |
| Abu Dhabi 11 78000market knowledge | 170,000 | 110,00085,000 – 142,000 | No, but close |
| Abu Dhabi 22 999market knowledge | 2,900,000 | 1,980,0001,510,000 – 2,600,000 | No, but close |
| Abu Dhabi 11 1701market knowledge | 50,000 | 74,00064,000 – 85,000 | No |
| Abu Dhabi 9 2714market knowledge | 50,000 | 47,00041,000 – 55,000 | Yes |
| Abu Dhabi 4764market knowledge | 50,000 | 67,00053,000 – 84,000 | No, but close |
| Abu Dhabi 2100market knowledge | 250,000 | 107,00085,000 – 134,000 | No |
| Abu Dhabi 14 14market knowledge | 6,500,000 | 5,530,0004,170,000 – 7,330,000 | Yes |
Common-sense checks (9 of 9 pass)
Things that hold true in this market. Our estimates must agree with them.
- Pass: Dubai 21 is worth at least as much as Dubai 86 (a lower 2-digit number costs more)
- Pass: Dubai 10001 is worth at least as much as Dubai 23432 (zeros in a row add value)
- Pass: Dubai 77777 is worth at least as much as Dubai 77770 (all one digit)
- Pass: Abu Dhabi 999 is worth at least as much as Abu Dhabi 989 (all the same beats nearly the same)
- Pass: Dubai 505 is worth at least as much as Dubai 514 (same digit at both ends, zero between)
- Pass: Abu Dhabi 60000 is worth at least as much as Abu Dhabi 55000 (four zeros beat three)
- Pass: Dubai 1002 is worth at least as much as Dubai 1092 (two zeros in the middle)
- Pass: Dubai 1230 is worth at least as much as Dubai 1237 (ending in 0)
- Pass: Dubai 1357 is worth at least as much as Dubai 5367 (starting with 1 beats 5)
What changes a plate's price
How many times more (or less) sellers ask than for a typical plate of the same emirate and length. ×2 means twice as much.
- Three zeros in a row
- ×7.2
- All one digit (77777)
- ×11
- Only two different digits (7007)
- ×2.2
- Same digit at both ends, zeros between (505)
- ×7.7
- Reads as a year (1970 to 2030)
- ×3.7
- Ends in 00
- ×1.9
- No pattern (2714)
- ×0.8
- Dubai 3-digit plates: starts with 1
- ×1.3
- Dubai 3-digit plates: starts with 5
- ×0.9
- Dubai 3-digit plates: one of the lowest numbers of its length
- ×1.4
- Dubai 4-digit plates: starts with 1
- ×1.4
- Dubai 4-digit plates: starts with 5
- ×0.9
- Dubai 4-digit plates: ends in a single 0
- ×1.5
- Dubai 4-digit plates: two zeros in the middle (like 1002)
- ×1.4
- Dubai 4-digit plates: one of the lowest numbers of its length
- ×1.3
- Dubai 5-digit plates: starts with 1
- ×1.1
- Dubai 5-digit plates: starts with 5
- ×0.9
- Dubai 5-digit plates: ends in a single 0
- ×1.3
- Dubai code A
- ×1.6
- Dubai code C
- ×1.2
- Dubai code B
- ×1.2
- Dubai code H
- ×0.9
- Abu Dhabi code 2
- ×1.3
- Abu Dhabi code 1
- ×1.3
- Abu Dhabi code 10
- ×0.9
Doubtful prices (16)
Prices that can’t be real are not used in estimates. Prices that are only suspiciously low are still used, marked “check first”.